What, me worry about Mr. Justice Kavanaugh? It just means help is on the way. That bully boy’s transfiguration by the moonhowlers completes the parallel between today and 1929.
The canonization of Animal House Kavanaugh, canons of ethics be damned, sealed the deal. If they make a movie of his life, it’s too bad John Belushi didn’t live to portray him. (Sen. Blutarski, call your office.)
The next Franklin Roosevelt is due for election in 2020 according to them what’s lots smarter than me. Watching the cycles of history allowed me to accurately predict a Republican presidential win on February 16, 2016. Back then, 17 GOP candidates were in the race, Donald Trump was viewed as the most likely early-out and Jebya Bush was the favorite.
Here’s an excerpt:
The cycles of history predict a Republican president’s election in November. If that doesn’t motivate Democrats, nothing will…
The best references are “The Cycles of American History” (1986) by liberal Kennedy historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., and “The Politics of Rich and Poor – Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath” (1990) by conservative Republican Kevin Phillips.
“Phillips traces unbroken presidential cycles dating back to Thomas Jefferson,” I wrote on 8 Nov. 1992.
“Each contains a ‘minority interruption.’ The 20th Century’s blips on the screen were Woodrow Wilson, Dwight Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter,” I noted…
Both scholars accurately predicted a 1992 Democratic victory. Phillips also foreshadowed the election of Richard the Rotten in his 1968 book, “The Emerging Republican Majority.”
Certainly, a lot of asterisks may be added to the above and new ones appear below. For instance, could Ross Perot have been the first non-major party candidate elected had he not gone psycho? Perhaps, as ‘92 was a change election.
The longest presidential cycle came with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, 1932-1968.
“All six of these eras began with watershed elections in which (1) the previous incumbent party was defeated and (2) a new alignment of party presidential voting – resting on a new coalition – was established, which kept its shape for at least 20 years,” Phillips wrote in 1990.
“Interestingly,” he added, “all three Republican hegemonies have produced a ‘capitalist heyday’ during the second half of the cycle.”
The current cycle started with Bill Clinton in 1992, a scary 24 years ago (in 2016). That’s exactly the duration of Nixon to Bush the Elder (1968-1992).
CONTRA-ARGUMENTS. (1) The “minority interruption” has not yet occurred because Bush the Lesser demonstrably lost Florida in 2000 and was installed by the Supremes. (Meaning that the current cycle has not expired.) This reinforces the case for the real GOP aberration happening this November (2016) followed by continuation of the 1992 cycle in 2020. Can you say President Elizabeth Warren?
(2) There has arguably not been a liberal in the White House since Lyndon Johnson left after 1968. Jimmy Carter and his Democratic successors would have been moderate Wall Street Republicans in previous eras.
(3) In his 1998 book “The Cousins’ Wars,” Phillips noted that in Britain and France, restoration of defeated dynasties led to collapse of their factions. He asserted that a Bush restoration could result in the collapse of the GOP. So far, he’s right on.
(4) Donald Trump can crack the Democratic base with angry blue collar voters. Bernie Sanders appeals to the same group and can hold serve. Hillary Clinton cannot. (See what actress Frances Fisher told me about Nevada’s “NRA cowboys” / Barbwire 2-23-2016.)
Back to today: FDR came to power in 1933 with the Great Depression in full Venus Flytrap flower. Lord John Maynard Keynes’ economic theory had not yet caught on, the thinking that government needs to use big deficits to kick-start a recessionary economy.
So Roosevelt did it on political instinct and it worked, despite a hyper-reactionary, pro-corporate supreme court that kept ruling his fixes for the economy as unconstitutional. Roosevelt tried and failed to expand the court’s membership as is now being discussed in the wake of the Kavanaughty-boy fiasco.
So the symmetry is perfect for the election of a liberal president in 2020 to combat the recession which started last July.
Missed it? I didn’t. Remember, I correctly forecast the 2007-08 crash more than two years up front; not because I have a crystal ball, but because I read stuff. (Barbwire 5-29-2005 et seq. See BarbanoMedia.com/) Experts of all stripes have been waving red flags for months.
The Barbwire can win you some bar bets or my name isn’t BARbano.
Be well. Raise hell. Esté bien. Haga infierno.
Andrew Barbano is a 50-year Nevadan and editor of NevadaLabor.com. E-mail <firstname.lastname@example.org>. Barbwire by Barbano has originated in the Tribune since 1988.