Sherman R. Frederick
Battle Born MediaJ
In the past month I had occasion to drive about 3,000 miles through Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona and New Mexico. I saw a number of “Trump/Pence” signs in all those states.
I did not see a “Biden/Harris” sign. Not one.
Of course, this (and three bucks) will get you a medium coffee at a fancy coffee shop. The national polls have Biden miles ahead of Trump and, truth be told, I feel at this point it is Biden’s to lose.
Trump threaded the needle in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. But voters hated Hillary in ways not even Democrats thought possible. Biden avoids that “hate” factor. Or, at least, that how it seems to me.
But you’d think the “Biden/Harris” campaign would elicit at least a few signs of support in my 3,000 mile trip. I wonder given this wholly unscientific observation whether Biden supporters have the fire-in-the-belly to push him to victory?
There is a bit of hope for Trump supporters. While poll aggregators give Biden the strong edge, there is one pollster who says differently.
The Trafalgar Group nailed the election in 2016. It had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ron DeSantis winning the governor’s seat in Florida.
Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group told political writer Rich Lowery last week how he does it. I won’t bore you with the details, but he keeps his poll questions down to a small number, and never samples less than 1,000 people in any state. And most importantly, he works to find ways to make sure conservatives are represented fairly in the sampling.
According to Cahaly, liberals like to talk about politics and will spend time with a pollster. Conservatives have other things to do. (I’m paraphrasing, of course, but that’s the upshot.)
Anyway, The Trafalgar Group has this election going Trump by the narrowest of margins. He’ll have to win North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and either Michigan or Pennsylvania. They have Trump ahead in Michigan and trailing Pennsylvania.
If the election were held last week, Cahaly told Lowry “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s” for Trump.
Sounds like another nail-biter to me.
SOME GOOD TELEVISION
I caught the Netflix dramatization of the Chicago 7 trial. Thought it was worth the time. I highly recommend it. Perfect for the times.
While Eddie Red Mayne played a good Tom Hayden and Sacha Baron Cohen did a nice turn in the role of Abbie Hoffman, I thought Joseph Gordon-Leavitt nailed it as the good-soldier prosecutor. Also, Frank Langella will have you yelling at the television set as the senile-ish judge Julius Hoffman.
ONE MORE THING
— Anyone else have the same problem?
And with that, I’ll pick up my knitting and let myself out. Stay safe. Mask up.
Sherman R. Frederick is the founder of Battle Born Media, a journalist-based, family-owned company dedicated to intensely local community newspapers in Nevada and Northern California. You can follow him on Facebook at facebook.com/sherm.frederick/. He may be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.)